Rekt Mkts: Payrolls smash expectations

Well payrolls just properly smashed expectations, so the easy risk-on read from yday already has a problem lol. Futures are only a bit softer for now, but yields jumped and crypto gave back part of the rebound. A strong jobs print is obviously not bad news on its own, but with oil and rates already high I am watching whether good news becomes bad news for risk again...

SPX gained roughly 1.1% yday and NDQ added about 1.2%. After today's jobs number, S&P futures are down around 0.3% while Nasdaq futures are basically flat. The 5Y has moved up roughly 6bps to 4.57%, the 10Y is up about 3bps near 4.79% and the 30Y is around 5.25%, up roughly 1bp. August payrolls came in at 162k against consensus near 56k, while unemployment held at 4.1% as expected. That is a big enough beat for mkts to care but the first reaction has been higher yields rather than a full risk selloff. I do think that says a lot about risk currently...and if payrolls had missed we probably would have had a mega rally today. Curious to see the day pan out but I've got a gut feeling that we end up trading decently off the day's lows across the board and the market brushes it aside.

Memory is finally giving me something better to look at in Korea. Hynix gained roughly 3.2% and Samsung added about 2.2%, both ahead of KOSPI's 1.6% rise. The less exciting bit is that MU and SNDK were basically flat yday even as Nvidia gained roughly 1.8% and the wider US market rallied. Interestingly most coins ony my list are still higher pre mkt post the payrolls print, albeit off their highs, so for me it's some slight confirmation that market wants to rally here on momentum names. Happy to sit long in memory stocks down 50-60% from the highs still here and I reckon we have a big run into the end of the year.

Crypto has given back part of yday's rebound after payrolls, altho the 24H numbers are still green overall. BTC is up roughly 1.1% near $79.5k (altho we hit north of 82k yday), ETH 1.2% around $2,453, SOL is basically flat near $101.60 and HYPE is leading the majors, up about 3.4% around $85.60. The reaction makes sense with yields higher, but it has not turned into a proper unwind so far and my guess is we will bounce. Robinhood chain continues to be extremely active with a load of shenanigans across the board. First, PONS is up yet another 26% near $0.71 after it generated roughly $6.4m in fees overall (surpassing Pumpfun) over the latest day while Robinhood Chain DEX volume reached about $1.69bn. More launches and trading create more fees, which is why this still looks like actual activity rather than just PA. Uniswap has also bought an undisclosed amount of PONS for long-term alignment. There is no disclosed size, price or wallet, so wtf that means financially is impossible to know, but it should bring more eyes into the complex. Elsewhere, AMC CEO spoke out about Robinhood's tokenised stock offering and issued legal threats against Robinhood, this caused a coin called MEME, paired with AMC stock, to run from a $100k mkt cap to north of a $100m mkt cap in the space of just a few hours, while AMC stock was momentarily up 20% pre market but has since given back gains. I would be surprised if we did not see more tradfi media report on this because it's i) interesting ii) crazy iii) dubious, which in turn bring even more focus on Robinhood crypto. Definitely going to be a very interesting long holiday weekend. Good luck today and touch some grass this weekend.