1800% jump in profit = stock down 10%

It's a bizarre market that makes no sense yet makes perfect sense. Many things are "cheap" on paper while simultaneously having run up hundreds of percent in the last year. The question is...which way from here?

Stocks looking a little wobbly with NDQ opening 1.1% lower, probably driven by Samsung earnings creating concerns re the memory cycle. Treasury yields going in the wrong direction for risk, with 10Y back above 4.5% and 30Y notably above 5%. Many smart people I speak to are of the belief that we see rate hikes this year...should Warsh want to prove true independence (which I think the market would actually appreciate) then a hike would be a good way to make such a statement without completely nuking everything. As it stands, there's a 26% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC on 29th July. The obvious offsetting factor here is Iran stuff has de-escalated and so oil is much lower and presumably this is a manufactured play by Trump lads to pause/reduce inflation (maybe with some number fudgery) into November. What's funny is the markets have been more a game of trying to calculate chess moves rather than actually applying economic or financial logic (spoiler: it's always been that way innit). We are at a point where I don't feel strongly either way...gut says there's a deep bid for risk if we drop lower, gut also says people wanna take chips off the table if we move higher - you're welcome for the fantastic insight.

Most of the overnight focus was on Samsung which accounts for almost a quarter of the KOSPI...if you've been following recent earnings for memory stocks it's not about beating previous earnings, or beating guidance, or beating market consensus...considering $MU price action after their ER apparently it's not even about absolutely smashing the highest estimate alongside announcing SCAs/LTAs...so I'm not actually sure what it's about lol. These stocks, IMO, are ultra cheap if you believe in the memory supercycle. The thing is, I don't think any of us are fading how crazy AI is going to get, the key source of FUD here is "memory breakthrough" + capex spending reductions which has dominated the timeline over the past few days. You also have SK Hynix looking to raise $28B from its ADR...while we've had SPCX being somewhat of a liquidity suck, this is literally the biggest memory-specific stock and I think probably the main reason for the recent weakness. Although I jumped the gun a little early, my expectation is for this weakness to correct post SK Hynix listing and for there to be a 20-30% correction upwards in memory.

Crypto is low-key very bid...MSTR fears are overblown imo. Don't get me wrong, I think we'd be in a MUCH better world in crypto if Saylor just disappeared (or ideally sold all of Strategy's holdings to the US govt at a big discount), but the important thing to note here is there is no near-term credit event for $MSTR. The next debt obligation is not until September 2027 when $1bn of convertible bonds become puttable. So if you're sitting here short $MSTR I'm not sure what specific catalyst you're really waiting for, and indeed Saylor just needs to stop hitting the ATM sales for like 2-3 weeks and the stock squeezes higher, which is a positive re-enforcement for crypto. I think we are seeing a beginning of the inverse of the death spiral.