Rekt Mkts: I'm looking at AI stocks and Robinhood

Welcome back to previous subscribers and fresh welcome to new subscribers. Just so you know, I'll never write this with AI, otherwise it provides no value to you but more importantly no value to myself, because I have always found this a good time to take my "head out of the arena" and observe the market from a vantage point (while also writing down my thoughts). I started trading this book from May 2021, at the highest point was up almost 30% I think at a portfolio level which is decent, but gave it all away due to a lack of discipline. Right now I think the two most interesting things in the market are AI stocks (specifically memory), and Robinhood Chain.

Keep staying laser focused on rates, still believe the biggest risk to the markets right now is Warsh trying to prove independence and taking a more-hawkish-than-necessary stance on rates. We moved a bit lower on Friday but the monthly moves still paint a leaky picture. The last FOMC before a break until September is July 28-29 and that will set the tone for the rest of summer. In general I think you want to be light and nimble on risk here, save yourself chips to buy any pullback in late summer/September which is more than possible. Another thing worth noting is we have seen crazy vol and big down moves in a lot of AI stocks while SPX has barely flinched, and that is another reason for caution for me.

If you are a memory_man (or an aspiring one) you will not be blind to the huge drawdown we've had recently. SK Hynix is down 38% from peak to current level, MU down 19%, SNDK down 27% and Samsung down 32%. The question now is "is it over" or is this a "dip to buy". Of course, buying all dips in the past 12 months would have proved highly profitable, but there's now certainly a growing concern on CXMT growing in market share, memory breakthroughs and of course oversupply in 2028. FinTwit will point you to the fact that fwd P/Es are extremely low (6.6x for MU and 5.8x for SK Hynix) but what is being priced in right now is the demand/supply imbalance changing in 2028 I guess (coz sounds like 2027 will still see major supply shortages). Stocks always price in future expectations and I read somewhere for memory it tends to be two quarters ahead, but from the same poster I also read that there's no set rule or reason why it should be two quarters and I think that's the fear...that and the fact that we're sitting on a monstrous run. I am by no means a memory expert, just a number pusher and a vibe trader, my gut says we can see a rebound here with data showing that the short interest has massively reduced in the 000660 KRX stock alongside many stocks sitting at or close to 100MA support levels, but counteractively I'm not really sure what it would take for these stocks to now rally to new ATHs aggressively, because the numbers Micron reported couldn't have been much better (including guidance + LTAs/SCAs) but the market continues to have a large degree of skepticism there. I assume the rest of the market is sharing my lack of conviction hence the trading prices, and my guess is we see vol sapped out quite a bit here until another major move. My plan on the stuff I own is to sell into strength but it always feels gross to do given how much you know this stuff can run when the momentum comes back.

Crypto has been extremely idiosyncratic this year and you would have done well to buy BTC sell AI stocks a month ago (obviously the inverse of that has been the trade all year). For now, I am simply a believer of the 4Y cycle unless otherwise disproved (largely because I have made the mistake of believing in the super cycle 2x in a row now, but also made the move of buying crypto in the accumulation phase before big bull markets). For long-term bags I have nothing inspiring to mention other than $BTC, $HYPE (and of course $REKT). I know there has been a big push for VVV and NEAR but they don't particularly excite me for now. I think LIT is interesting when you run the numbers and it's hard for me to see that not perform well in a stronger market. What I do think is interesting right now is Robinhood Chain. It could all just end in zero, but I find it hard to believe it's just going to end in zero. Will Robinhood's 30 million retail users now start gambling on memecoins and RWAs onchain? I am also not dumb enough to believe that has a high probability. However, it doesn't NEED to happen and the narrative is what is most important. Remember, crypto is a tiny asset class and it really doesn't take much capital to get things moving. We saw $CASHCAT run to a $250m CM, which followed $ANSEM running to $400m FDV and it's been a long time since anything like this has happened. This shows that capital is starting to return to the market and it's time to pay attention. On RH I own two things; $CASHCAT and $PONS. The latter I would suggest reading this: @AvgJoesCrypto on X - now remember this is annualising like single-day revenues so it's very finger-in-the-air...but again...narratives are most important right and if you believe RH chain activity picks up then PONS revenues (and price) certainly will. CASHCAT I think has displayed very typical price characteristics of initial blow-off top on a good narrative, then a big dump lower (caused by people dumping spot on HL while shorting alongside...but...notable that it's gotten onto HL so fast which means some big ppl are involved). We're now something like 60-70% off the lows and it seems like it's CTO'd by this guy: @spinor_ on X (take what he says with a pinch of salt given fully anon account joined in July 2026) but there is a chance that people are working on it. Either way, I think it's cemented itself as RH Chain's "main runner" and I feel like it's worth a gamble (fyi I bought at 90M, missed the chance to sell at 200+, sold at 120M and 80M then bought back between 40-60M...but my current avg price is around 61M). It's not a slam dunk conviction play (even I have too much PTSD from 2Y ago still) but subscribe to Pro to get more detailed thoughts on where I wanna take chips off etc.