Rekt Mkts: Memory sells the news

As you know, I've been waiting for lower levels in memory and it feels like we're getting there. SK Hynix posted record quarterly profit but missed forecasts, and the stock fell nearly 10% today after MU and SNDK were already hit hard yday. Tbh that is about as clear a continuation of the sell on strength mentality as I could have asked for. We're finally getting closer to levels where I want to add proper equity risk, but I don't want to confuse closer with compelling. I'm still around 65% cash so the plan remains to add selectively into weakness rather than spend the cash just coz futures have stopped falling this morning.

SPX managed to close 0.2% higher yday while NDQ fell about 1%, while this morning SPX and NDQ futures are both slightly green. The latest Treasury close had the 10Y around 4.6%, down nearly 4bps, and the 30Y around 5.1%, down around 3bps. WTI has bounced more than 3% to roughly $82, while gold is up around 1.5% near $4,100. The Fed decision is still in front of us today...looks like odds of a hike are at 36%. If we don't get a hike, maybe we get a relief move afterwards, but with the tape repeatedly selling strength I still don't see a reason to front-run it. I would rather keep the cash and see whether any bounce can actually hold...and kinda thing a hike + kitchen sink would be more bullish so we can actually deploy risk without shitting ourselves.

The broad Korean index slumped 6% today, as SK Hynix fell 9.6% despite record quarterly profit, Samsung lost 5.2% and Kioxia dropped 13.8%. The Hynix numbers missing forecasts matter, but the reaction matters more imo: strong AI memory demand and another big capex increase are not enough when expectations and positioning are already this high. The US version yday was similar. MU fell 8.9%, SNDK lost 14.2% and NBIS dropped 9.7%, while NVDA was actually slightly green and META was basically flat. So this is not simply the whole AI trade dying, it is a sharp unwind in memory and some of the more crowded related names. I still prefer MU over SNDK and MU around $821 is obviously more interesting than it was above $900, but I still feel like I'm looking for lower altho 700s maybe worth a nibble. SanDisk reports next week, which is the next obvious test for memory. At current levels that is quite tempting to me for a punt. I've started DCAing on SPCX, my view there is that we see some sort of a rally/pump post earnings and pre unlocks - that is generally how I would do it and what I would save good news for if I was Elon, and sub 110 I think it's worth a punt, I def wanna continue growing that position.

Crypto is showing some relative resilience again after yday's tech selloff. BTC is around $64.6k and up roughly 1.2% today, with ETH around $1,920 and SOL around $74. BTC holding while NDQ lost about 1% is notable...newsflow on CLARITY has died a bit but that still feels like the near-term thing to look out for in an otherwise quiet crypto market. PONS dropped 17% yday and saw more volatility as RH launchpad competition intensified, but with a 75%+ market share the numbers show that it remains fully in control. Elsewhere we saw something called $PIPEDOG on RH come from nowhere and run straight to a $60M mkt cap...given the large about of initial liquidity that was added and burned I can only imagine there are sophisticated market players behind it. Regardless...there is a lot of opportunity out there onchain at the moment and I think it pays to stay engaged. Good luck today.