Rekt Mkts: Sell strength continues

Just continues to feel soggy doesn't it, with pretty much zero rallies able to hold in momentum stuff like memory or South Korea. I'm still running a decent amount of cash, with most positions existing into short-term catalyst, but the goal for me will definitely be to lighten up as those catalysts come, win or lose.

SPX gained 0.7% on Friday and NDQ added 0.6%, futures did start the day a similar amount higher but have reince eroded all gains. The broad US tape is holding up, but Asia is not: KOSPI fell 5.1% today, granted this could be a natural pullback following Friday's monster monve. Rates also moved the wrong way which continues to be on the back of my mind. The latest close had the 10Y around 4.75%, up about 8bps, while the 30Y rose nearly 7bps to around 5.28%. WTI has dropped around 6% to about $79.50 as a result of more headlines over the weekend, while gold is up around 1.4% near $4,100. Tbh it feels like the market's sensitivity to Iran headlines is starting to wane. To me this is two different moves rather than one neat risk-on story. Lower oil reflects some geopolitical relief and US futures like it, while the memory unwind is still doing its own violent technical thing in Asia. With long rates and gold both higher, I don't think lower crude alone fixes the broader setup.

Friday's broad indices looked fine, but we saw a pullback in memory stocks after the post SA headline pump on Thurs. Honestly I was expecting for there to be a bit of continued momentum, however, that did not happen and it's just another re-enforcement of the sell strength meta (whether it was residual Citadel risk IDK) MU fell 5.9% and SNDK lost 5.1%, while NVDA gained 2.9%, Meta rose 3.3% and NBIS added 1.1%. So a bit of a mixed bag overall but certain names continuing to display weakness. Korea made that distinction even clearer today. KOSPI fell 5.1%, with SK Hynix and Samsung both down around 8.8%, but Kioxia gained 5.7% in Japan...noteworthy and a sign of technical weakness being specific to SK. This is a big week for earnings with SPCX reporting on Tues, and SNDK reporting on Weds. Both are interesting to me as potential long gambles; with the former you'd expect them to try to do something positive to pump it pre unlocks in two days, and with SNDK I'm starting to wonder, given recent price action, the risk-reward has changed where a positive surprise could actually work. Options are implying an 18% move after earnings which is absolutely wild...so certainly gonna be an interesting one.

Crypto hasn't found much of a bid from firmer US futures or lower oil. BTC is around $62.7k this morning, ETH near $1,845 and SOL around $72.50. All three majors are down today, while BTC is also below Friday's level and the relative outperformance versus tech has faded. Turns out Saylor sold $102m worth of BTC last week which explains some of the underperformance. In RH world we saw quite a shift as Stonkbroker hit a new ATH to surpass $40M while $PONS sadly dropped back to $20M after a delay in its V2 launch. Despite that, it's had 75% market share in the past 24H in terms of fees, while now having burnt 24% of its entire supply. It screens incredibly cheap but obviously with a confidence hit from the market we'll need to see a solid V2 launch this week to regain traction. I think there is going to be A LOT of opportunity to make money onchain over the next few weeks and months and I'm going to branch out a little further to find ideas. Good luck today.