Rekt Mkts: Don't call it a comeback

Well the mkt has finally managed to hold a rally. Hopes of US-Iran diplomacy drove the move yday and tech is still bid this morning, even as the latest headlines make it pretty obvious this is not some clean geopolitical all-clear. The important bit to me is that the relief has survived beyond the first futures pump...and it's certainly not what I was expecting sitting at my desk watching the market open yesterday. It's one of those situations where I feel like I've done the right thing to have some risk despite not necessarily being short-term bullish, so I don't feel too annoyed about going higher!

SPX gained 1.5% yday and NDQ rose 1.8%. This morning SPX futures are modestly green while NDQ futures are up around 1.1%, so tech is still leading but the move is nowhere near as broad as yday's rally. Rates finally eased too. The latest close had the 10Y around 4.69%, down roughly 6bps, while the 30Y fell about 4bps to 5.23%. WTI is back around $78 this morning, while gold is up roughly 2.5% near $4,130 - on the whole a relatively bullish setup for the day actually. Worth noting we have payrolls on Fri, expectations are 80k vs last month's 50k number so potential vol event towards the end of the week.

The broad US move was strong yday, but the stocks still tell a more useful story. NVDA gained 2.9%, Meta rose 6%, NBIS jumped 11.6% and SNDK added 6%, while MU only managed 0.8%...got my tin foil hat on but kinda notable that the larger positions of SA (where Citadel may have a residual) are the ones to outperform. Asia is mixed in the same way today. KOSPI gained 1.6% and Kioxia rose 6%, while SK Hynix and Samsung were only modestly green. That is obviously much better than another selloff, but Hynix still isn't giving the follow-through I'd want from one of my biggest positions. The technical damage looks more specific to Korea than the broad AI trade. As you know, I'm meaningfully long SK Hynix, MU and SNDK, with SPCX also a proper position. SPCX reports today and SNDK follows tomorrow, so this is now about whether the actual catalysts can hold strength. The recent selloff has cleaned up expectations and improved the risk/reward, but if good news gets sold again then the sell-strength meta never really left. Either way, I want to use these events to lighten the book rather than turn one decent session into a grand new thesis.

Crypto is still mostly watching the equity rally go past. BTC is around $63.8k this morning and only modestly green today, ETH is down roughly 0.7% near $1,870 and SOL is around $74. With NDQ futures up around 1.1% after a strong tech session yday, the relative underperformance is still pretty obvious. The marginal risk bid remains elsewhere...while crypto just feels kinda quiet. CATE was the big mover yesterday as it tripled to a $70M mkt cap before dropping 90% in a candle after a big whale exited and subsequently recovering back up to around $50M. Pretty insane vol but once again shows you that there are certainly plenty of opportunities onchain right now! Good luck today.