Rekt Mkts: Squeeeeeze

Despite a good overnight win for me on $NBIS, I'm definitely in that rather uncomfortable position as someone who is perpetually bullish but is completely flat stocks on a day where the pump keeps pumping...the next few days are important imo.

SPX gained 0.3% yday while NDQ rose 0.7%. This morning SPX futures are modestly green and NDQ futures are only slightly higher, so the follow-through is positive but fairly calm. Rates were mixed at the latest close. The 5Y eased roughly 1bp to 4.38%, the 10Y was basically unchanged near 4.68% and the 30Y added around 1bp to 5.25%. WTI is down roughly 2% near $81.50 while gold is up around 0.7% near $4,441. Lower oil is helpful for the inflation setup, but the long end refusing to rally stops this being a totally clean risk-on signal. July CPI rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, which partially fuelled the risk rally...but personally I would have liked to have seen a miss and I think continued prints around here don't alleviate concerns. PPI is the next test today, with consensus looking for a 0.2% monthly increase. If that is also benign and long yields still cannot come down, that would be the bit I'd pay attention to.

Mega rally in AI stuff yday. NDQ gained 0.7%, with NBIS up a whopping 34.1% on good numbers, SNDK gaining 5.8%, MU rising 4.9% and NVDA adding 3%, while Meta fell 3.4%. This was clearly an AI and memory bid rather than everything going up together. Asia then gave it proper follow-through. KOSPI gained 3.6%, SK Hynix rose 5.9%, Samsung added 4.9% and Kioxia gained 3.9%. That is the first broad memory response in a while that actually looks constructive rather than one random name bouncing. I was fortunate enough to have caught the NBIS move for a quick overnight trade but sadly sold a bit too early on the day on grounds of "maintaining discipline" although I must say I'm really not surprised about the move higher with lots of positive news surrounding it (technical overhang cleared, huge beat on numbers, NVDA announcing a funding scheme for neocloud capex etc). Not only that, but Michael Burry is also short so I think people are at his throat, although there were reports that he shorted more yesterday. It puts us at quite interesting levels here across the board, close to the top of the range, and my gut once again is to not get trapped into buying strength or momentum...we've failed to break these levels the last few times and I still don't see what "sends" us through ATHs on tech stocks in general...in any case you would think the last two weeks of August is going to be quiet...(I've def jinxed that)

Crypto majors are quiet and slightly weaker this morning. BTC is around $63.4k and down 1.2% over 24 hours, ETH is near $1,878 and down 1.9%, while SOL is around $75.60 and down 1.6%. HYPE is the exception, up 2.2% near $57 staging a mild recovery from recent lows. On Robinhood Chain the tape is much more violent. PONS is holding around $0.046, basically flat over 24 hours despite breaching the 0.05 level for a while, after delivering its 7th consecutive day of $100k+ protocol revenues (of which 80% go towards buying and burning the token). It now sits at 27.3% of the total supply being burnt which is quite astonishing to me still. Elsewhere STONKBROKER and MANCER are both down around 29%. It's the first major correction we've seen in STONKBROKER and it sounds like their launchpad had become erroneously available which resulted in a handful of rogue tokens being launched, and subsequently denounced by the StonkBroker team. In terms of memes on RobinHood $HMMM (Hmmm Cat) was the big winner climbing another 150% to breach the $30M mkt cap level yesterday, before retracing to around $22M. Plenty of vol and activity out there on RH and it's the only part of crypto I'm paying this much attention to. Good luck today.