Rekt Mkts: Bad start for the late August grind

Ahhh the old ranges hold once again as NDQ + memory once again get rejected from these local highs...while crypto just keeps keeps going...

US equities closed lower today, with SPX down 0.3% and NDQ off 1%. Rates are actually offering some relief. The 5Y is near 4.41% and down roughly 2bps, the 10Y is around 4.70% and down 3bps, while the 30Y is near 5.23% and down roughly 5bps. Gold is up 1.9% near $4,710 while WTI is down 2.4% around $85. Plain English: this is not a clean risk-off tape. The long end is easing, oil is lower and crypto is green, but Nasdaq getting hit while gold keeps ripping tells me the easy part of the summer squeeze may be behind us and we might not see follow through for the final few days of August...but I still lean towards a grind into payrolls and feel like the mkt has shown its hand on performance on big macro datapoints.

Korea reversed a decent amount today after last week's squeeze. KOSPI fell 3.1%, SK Hynix lost 3.4% and Samsung dropped 8.7%. US memory was even worse, with Hynix ADR, MU and SNDK down 5-7%. I don't have enough clean evidence to force one neat explanation across the whole complex other than it being a natural pullback from the recent run. Nvidia fell 2.9% ahead of Wednesday's results, which now look like the cleaner test for AI and memory. I want to see whether demand commentary can stabilise the complex and, more importantly, whether any good news actually holds. I'm holding the three names for now. If Nvidia validates demand and memory finds a bid, this may still be a violent reset after a huge run. If good news gets sold again, the risk-reward has changed and I will reassess rather than forcing the old thesis.

Crypto continues to aggressively outperform stocks. BTC is around $79k and up 1.5% over 24 hours, ETH is near $2,483 and up 0.6%, while SOL is up 2.2% near $97.38. HYPE is the clear laggard, down 4.9% near $77.93. So the majors are mostly green, but the split beneath them says this is not another everything-goes-vertical move. The broader point remains ETH. When it runs, active L2 ecosystems can reprice very quickly. Today ETH is holding rather than accelerating, so I want to see whether it can stay firm while tech is weak. If it does, I think liquidity can keep moving further down the active onchain ecosystems. If it loses the move, this was probably another squeeze rather than a proper change in behaviour. The RH ecosystem has been on fire in the past couple of days with PONS hitting new ATHs, up 80% to a mkt cap of around $60M - I took my first meaningful profits on that name taking our most of the initials from my $6M entry, but I still hold a meaningful position and continue to be bullish on it being a good proxy for the RH ecosystem. Elsewhere there's been a bit of focus on Kraken's L2, Ink, with both NFTs and a handful of coins posting some large moves as speculation on it launching its token airdrop intensifies. Personally I'm not crazy bullish on it and don't see it having as strong a narrative as RH but probably worth keeping an eye out for some convex plays (I dabbled in $ICAT as the main-running meme there). In any case - onchain activity continues to increase with the likes of FOMO/Pumpfun becoming increasingly popular, gotta stay locked in as they say. Good luck this week.