Rekt Mkts: Robinhood Chain activity surges

Stocks and tradfi gonna be pretty much dead this week I guess with it being a holiday weekend in the US coming up + last week of summer etc. Despite that, crypto has been the most active I've seen it in about 2 years with the activity almost exclusively taking place in the tokenised stock world, namely on Robinhood Chain. Exciting stuff.

SPX closed down roughly 0.3% today while NDQ was basically flat. S&P futures are still off around 0.3% and Nasdaq futures are flat, so there is no meaningful reversal after the close. Rates are firmer: the 5Y is near 4.51%, up roughly 3bps, the 10Y around 4.76%, up about 4bps, and the 30Y near 5.25%, up roughly 4bps. WTI is up around 3% near $86 after renewed US-Iran fighting, while gold gained roughly 0.4% to about $4,498. Firmer rates plus another oil shock should be harder for risk than this, so for now I read today's mixed close as pretty resilient but presumably on low volumes.

The more useful action was below the indices today. NVDA gained roughly 1.5%, but memory did better: Hynix ADR added about 2.2%, MU 2.8% and SNDK 5.5%, after Hynix and Samsung both finished higher in Korea. Once again, I'm assuming volume is very low here but I think it's promising price action and I continue to hold onto memory names for a Q4 rebound.

Majors are taking a breather rather than breaking. BTC is basically flat around $78.9k over 24 hours, ETH is down roughly 0.8% near $2,481 and SOL is off about 2% around $103.70, while HYPE is up roughly 1.2%. That is a softer risk curve, but hardly a proper unwind. The strongest onchain evidence still points straight back towards Robinhood Chain where things are really kicking off. DEX volume reached roughly $1.4bn over the latest day, up about 36%, while apps on the chain generated around $2.66m of revenue, up roughly 45%. Pons produced about $967k marking its highest revenue day yet. PONS is now up roughly 10x in price over the last couple of weeks as onchain activity continues to surge; despite its price increase it still trades at a MC/revenue multiple of just 2x, compared to Pump's 4x. I remain long having taken some profits (sadly too early) but it's now climbed to become the biggest position in my book by quite some distance. I can only see the onchain activity on RH continuing to increase and so once again reiterating this as one of the best ways to play it - my expectation is that given its activity and volumes we will see T1 listings and an influx of liquidity sooner rather than later. To put into perspective, on Sunday it did more 24H revenue than Hyperliquid and Pumpfun, so fully in the big leagues now. The meme/tokenised stock pair meta has been fun to watch; yesterday we saw a coin called $CINEMA launch against $AMC which sent $AMC tokenised stock to 10x its spot closing price due to a thin LP and it being a weekend, so no ability to complete the arb. It's resulted in a wide range of market participants start to get involved in the RH ecosystem which once again is bullish for volumes and therefore activity. I still believe we are at the start of this and it has the potential to be a cycle-defining narrative (probably already is)...would recommend paying attention if you haven't because there's still a lot of money to be made. Cheers and good luck