Rekt Mkts: Oil jumps, crypto selling deepens

Well WTI has joined the $100 club while Brent surpassed 105 and yields are still climbing...not the combination I wanted to see. Futures are lower, especially Nasdaq. Memory held up yday, but the mixed onchain PA we talked about has turned into a much wider crypto selloff.

US PPI rose 0.4% in August, in line with consensus, while the annual number was 5.4%, a touch above expectations. Energy accounted for most of the rise in goods prices, with services only up 0.1%. So not a big monthly surprise, but not much relief on the energy side either. As mentioned yday, CPI is the other headliner and arrives tomorrow, ahead of next week's FOMC and the decision between holding and hiking. The ECB raised rates by 25bps today as expected, taking the deposit rate to 2.5% from next week. It explicitly pointed to inflation pressure from the Middle East conflict and raised its inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028. WTI is currently around $100, up roughly 4%, while gold futures are down about 0.5% near $4,395. The 10Y is around 4.91% and the 30Y near 5.35%, up roughly 7bps and 6bps respectively. S&P futures are down about 0.5% and Nasdaq futures about 1.2%. Bonds are still under pressure despite the Treasury's plan to buy back up to $6bn of longer-dated debt today. Sort of feels like everything has taken a large step in the wrong direction suddenly over the last 24H and the oil price is what's concerning for me...we'll see what happens with CPI tomorrow...I *still* think the pain trade is higher here but the fundamentals are hard to completely ignore.

Memory held onto decent gains in the US yday: MU finished up about 2.8% and SNDK 1.5%, while Nvidia lost roughly 0.9%. Korea was more subdued today, with Hynix and Samsung both marginally lower, altho Kioxia gained about 1.9% in Japan. Definitely still some relative strength here, rather than the whole tech market finding conviction. Elsewhere I think $HOOD is quite interesting here still with the success of Robinhood chain, earnings are not for a while it seems like but I'm currently in the process of running numbers on that as something to potentially own.

Majors are properly softer today. BTC is around $76.9k and ETH near $2,416, down roughly 3.4% and 3.8% over 24 hours. SOL is back below $100, off about 5%, and HYPE is down roughly 7%. Quite a change from the fairly quiet majors tape yday....the first bit of proper weakness I feel like we've seen for a while and finally tracking equities a bit more. The onchain pullback has got sharper too, and it isn't confined to Robinhood. PONS is down about 30% and MEME roughly 39%, while STONK on Solana is off about 25%. Yday I mentioned competition between platforms as a possible reason for some capital moving around, but with both sides selling off today that isn't enough to explain the wider move and it feels like we are generally having an overall pullback here. I think the concern is that a large amount of traders are sitting on big UPNL numbers on the FOMO app, which has played a big part in the "bet more" culture but I fear may also play a big part in some form of cascade, with some of the larger well-known traders fully liquidating yesterday. I am still very bullish on Robinhood + onchain over the course of the next cycle but I think, like with any market, that we need to see pullbacks. It's almost like the FOMO UPNL is the new version of OI in perps...the higher it goes the more likely we are to see a cascade, and then reset, and then back up again. Let's see. Good luck today.