Rekt Mkts: Crypto surges while oil drops

Well the recovery has carried on, with crypto picking up pace and memory stocks still getting a proper bid after yday's rally. WTI is back below $100 too...a rather different end to the week from the way it started.

WTI futures are around $98, down about 4%. China has reportedly asked Iran to help rein in the Houthis, while hopes of alternative export routes have also helped oil come off. That's optimism about getting barrels moving again, rather than confirmation the supply problem is fixed. More disruption to exports would make that relief harder to sustain. The 10Y is back around 5%, up about 5bps from yday's close, so the oil relief hasn't translated into lower borrowing costs today. Gold futures are around $4,390. The BOJ raised rates to 1.25% today, with two board members dissenting. The hike was expected and the yen weakened anyway. Ueda still described policy as accommodative, so this isn't a signal that Japan is done tightening either but all in all it feels like this week we have avoided any nasty surprises wrt monetary policy. Feels like to me we're in a state of "bad news is out the way" in a market that has felt like it's wanted to rally, and as a result we're seeing some decent continuation in high momentum names.

S&P and Nasdaq futures were firmer heading into the open, with tech leading. Memory is still getting a bid after yday's recovery, rather than giving it straight back. MU and SNDK are extending their gains, after a strong session for memory in Asia too. Quite a change from the selling earlier in the week. The stocks have recovered despite the concerns about the pace of AI development. Calls to slow it down still aren't the same as cuts to chip orders or data-centre spending and everyone knows the US doesn't want to lose a race against China. The bounce doesn't settle that debate, but the initial selling hasn't kept following through. Actual spending cuts would be a different problem from the headlines we've been trading but for now it doesn't seem to be the case. I believe all of these names can continue to gather momentum to retest ATHs over the next few weeks.

Big rally across the board after the CFTC sent a new market structure proposal to the White House on crypto, while we also await potential headlines from the SEC as well. Kind of mental that this was on a plate for us in terms of buying that CLARITY dip but that is how it goes sometimes. We're seeing BTC climb towards 81k, ETH towards 2600 and SOL to 110 while alts such as ZEC, HYPE, LIT etc have caught a very strong bid and continue to see follow-on action. I've been less focused onchain and more focused in trading majors and larger coins in perps as I think there's easier money to be made there. Worth noting that US spot BTC ETFs brought in $159.5m yday, reversing two days of outflows. ETH ETFs lost another $39.3m, their third consecutive day of withdrawals, altho the selling was much smaller than Wednesday's $224.1m. So BTC has some renewed buying from the funds alongside the bounce, while ETH is recovering despite money still leaving its ETFs. Either way, I think we might be on the precipice of a cracking few weeks...here's hoping. Good luck today and have a good weekend.