Rekt Mkts: Crypto continues to surge as equities join the party

Well the rally has carried into Monday, with crypto pushing higher and US futures firmer too. Oil is falling again as Saudi shipments recover...a better start to the week, with the Trump-Xi summit up next.

Brent is around $102, down about 2%, with recovering Saudi exports helping take some pressure off oil. Shipping estimates put Saudi exports just above 4m barrels a day so far in September, up from 2.4m in August. There are also reports of efforts to restart some flows through the damaged East-West pipeline, altho that's still different from having the route fully back. Bonds are getting some relief alongside cheaper oil, with Europe leading the move. The US 10Y is currently at 4.96%, about 5 bps lower, while 30Y is now at 5.29%, 3bps lower. Gold futures are around $4,390. Bessent described Sunday's talks with China's He Lifeng as very successful ahead of the Trump-Xi summit on Thursday. Trade and AI were both on the table. That's a better backdrop than another escalation, but we still need to see what the leaders actually agree to...idk if it's going to move markets but I would struggle to think anything negative comes of it now this close to mid-terms.

S&P and Nasdaq futures are firmer, with tech leading. South Korean exports hit a record for the first 20 days of September on strong chip demand, and MU and AMD are both getting a bid in the premarket. That gives the AI names something more concrete to trade on than another round of arguments about whether development should slow down...Trump made comments over the weekend alluding to the fact that the US will indeed not slow down. Lots of AI names, namely the memory stuff look like they are breaking out of recent ranges on charts after strong closes on Friday, and I think we're in for another strong equity session there today; of my holdings, MU and SNDK are already up 1-2% pre market but I expect those to finish the day a decent amount higher.

BTC, ETH and SOL are pushing higher alongside falling oil and a better mood across risk assets. BTC is up about 5% over 24H and ETH roughly 5.5%, with SOL doing more of the running at just over 7%...all charts breaking out of recent ranges and it's relatively clear this move is set to continue. Friday's ETF flows give that recovery some support. US spot BTC ETFs took in $433m on September 18, their second consecutive day of inflows, while ETH ETFs brought in $143.7m and ended three days of withdrawals. Altho Friday did a lot of the work: BTC only scraped into positive territory for the full week at $6.1m and ETH still lost $140.6m. The buying picked up into the end of the week, rather than being there throughout. VVV stands out with a roughly 21% move overnight, but the usual suspects of ZEC, NEAR continue to trade well and I think for those coins that have reached new ATHs and are in price discovery mode, we are set to see some continued performance there. Onchain activity has looked much more quiet to me but the clear winner of late has been STONK which surpassed PONS' 7-day revenues last week as it hit new ATHs. I still favour the majors + larger-cap liquid tokens here, but I think that pnl will inevitably flow back to onchain again. Good luck today.