Rekt Mkts: BUY ALL DIPS??

As mentioned earlier this week I do truly believe this is a market where we're meant to be buying dips on risk assets and it has once again played out, particularly in crypto but also in equities. For those more focused on crypto, it truly is tough to break out of the bear market PTSD of "always take profits quickly, sell strength etc" and I would fully put myself in that category too...but I am consciously trying to once again believe, let the winners run and just be a bit less panicky!

US durable goods orders and the final Michigan consumer sentiment survey are due today. Michigan's inflation expectations are worth watching after last week's Fed hike, with markets still pricing further tightening...again not the highest vol event but it's def something to watch out for. The US 10Y is around 5.17%, slightly higher on the day despite easing from the recent peak near 5.22%. So there's been some relief from the worst of the bond selloff, altho borrowing costs are still well above where they were earlier in the week and of course it's the talk of the town with your favourite zoomer opining on his opinion of US treasuries. WTI futures are around $92.40, down roughly 2.3%, while gold futures are around $4,347. US and Iranian negotiators are reportedly exploring a phased deal involving the reopening of Hormuz and an end to the US blockade on Iranian ports. Oil is giving back some of Thursday's jump as the prospect of getting supply moving again improves...but a proposed deal still needs to turn into barrels reaching buyers...in general it sort of feels like to me that price pressure on oil is starting to alleviate.

S&P and Nasdaq futures are higher. Meta rose 4.5% yday, while Nvidia finished slightly lower and SNDK lost about 3.5%. The buying in Meta hasn't been enough to carry all the chip and memory names along with it but I think we're likely to see lightening of memory risk ahead of Micron earnings. Meta's Connect announcements give Muse more ways into everyday use. It's adding shopping support for the likes of Walmart and Wayfair, alongside plans to bring the agent to its glasses in the coming months. Getting ppl to buy things or handle tasks through an agent gives the consumer AI story something more concrete than another chatbot demo. More usage would help justify the spending, but how much revenue these services will generate is still an open question. Meta is getting rewarded for the prospect...the follow-through in the related names is less convincing. I am fascinated by Meta/Muse because of stuff like this and their appeal to like the everyday consumer...when you're in this space it's easy to get lost in our bubble and forget that 99% of people aren't using a Hermes agent or running multiple AI subscriptions (or even one)...and they don't have to, but everyday devices we use could have LLMs baked in to conduct everyday tasks more efficiently to the point where the average consumer doesn't know they're even dealing with AI...and that I think is the big opportunity set (and all that stuff will require memory btw).

BTC and ETH are higher over 24H, with SOL up roughly 7% and HYPE about 3%. The majors are bouncing after the rally lost momentum earlier in the week. There's been a lot of chat about BTC dropping to 80-81K area but the price action to me looks more supportive and I think there's bigger capital out there that is expressing my buy dips mentality. US spot BTC ETFs took in $190.7m yday, down from $346.9m on Wednesday, while ETH ETFs brought in $66.1m versus $104.5m. That puts this week's net buying through Thursday at roughly $2.25bn for BTC and $602.8m for ETH. Inflows have slowed each day this week for both, but buyers are still adding money even after the rally stalled. ZEC and VVV are doing more of the running, up roughly 8% and 12% over 24H respectively. Those were among the names holding up in yday's drop...these markets are often straight forward and you simply have to buy the coins that show strength during selloffs. LIT is pretty much flat, while HYPE is higher, reversing the relative-strength picture we were discussing yday. Good luck today.