Rekt Mkts: Routine diaper check following bond selloff

US futures are pretty much flat after yday's selling, with tech trying to find a bid again. Just sort of feels like every time we stabilise or are about to take a leg higher, rates just rip higher and stifle any follow through.

US consumer confidence and August JOLTS job openings are due today. With further Fed hikes back in focus, the jobs data matters for whether labour demand is cooling enough to take some pressure off rates. Strong openings would give the Fed less reason to worry about tightening into a weak jobs market. The US 10Y is around 5.26%, up roughly 1.5bps on the day. There's still very little relief from the bond selloff which seems to want to keep going, while WTI futures are around $91.75 and gold futures around $4,189. My take on rates is that you have to realise that in the last 6 years we've seen a paradigm of "up only" for both rates and risk assets. Our brains are wired to thinking that equities move with rates (ie we want to see lower rates for them to go higher), however, I just think the AI revolution, which is a full curve shift in terms of technological advancement, is the biggest factor and not only fully outweighs the impact of rates but I think in turn clearly causes the rates move itself (not only in terms of inflation, but also like...for asset allocators...why would you wanna be in fixed income right now when you basically HAVE to have some (or a lot) of exposure to AI stocks). IDK but I just think the market has changed A LOT in the past few years, and sometimes you have to just admit to yourself that it may well have been a complete waste of time spending all those hours studying for the CFA (which ironically I never completed). Trump has denied reports that he offered Iran sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds in exchange for progress on its nuclear programme. There is still no agreed reopening of Hormuz. That's the bit that matters for oil and inflation...the terms of a possible offer are still disputed.

S&P and Nasdaq futures are up smalls, with tech trying to recover from yday's selling. It's a steadier start, altho there isn't much of a rebound in the broader market yet and we'll have to see what happens when stocks fully open. Nvidia added $150bn to its buyback authorisation yday, taking the total to $235bn. It finished higher while the wider chip sector sold off. That gives its relative strength a concrete company catalyst...but permission to buy its own shares isn't a fresh order for chips, so it doesn't tell us much about demand for the rest of AI/have any readthru and so just something company specific. Micron reports tomorrow after the US close, and this is what's going to set the tone for the memory space over the next few weeks. HBM demand and guidance will give the trade a more direct test of whether AI spending is still translating into orders and pricing. Strong HBM commentary would read more directly to SK Hynix; SNDK needs evidence on NAND demand rather than just a good headline about AI memory...thing is...everyone knows numbers are gonna be a blowout and it's more about future guidance and how they can convince the market, previous commentary of LTAs/SCAs were sort of brushed over but I think we entered the last set of earnings on a very different tone with people essentially looking for the exit pump. This time round, we sit with memory stocks a decent amount off their highs but also with some stability, so I am hopeful (but not fully convicted) that we could see some positive PA.

BTC and ETH are still attracting ETF money despite the tougher rates backdrop and have certainly outperformed alts in the past 48H. US spot BTC ETFs took in $31m yday, down from $134.5m on Friday, while ETH ETFs brought in $17.1m versus $87m. Those Monday flows are also this week's totals so far. We saw some nasty moves of course in alts, particularly in the "fan favourites" of VVV/ZEC/NEAR and I suspect there was a lot of leverage that got wiped out. Personally I still really like ZEC here and think these dips will be seen as good buying opportunities in weeks to come. Definitely worth staying nimble in terms of leverage I think. There's a lot of speculation headed into the RH conference this week - my take on RH/onchain stuff is it just feels like there's a lot of bangholders there and everyone is hoping for something to come out of it. My experience in these things when everyone is waiting for a big event (remember DOGE/Elon/SNL and stuff like that) it never really transpires and always ends up being sell the news if something is positive, or, if there's nothing announced then a pretty deep selloff. Consequently I don't think the risk/reward is a good one into that, although I may look at bargain hunting on a larger dip. Good luck today.