Rekt Mkts: Risk tepid with the clock running down on midterms

Crypto is looking steadier after another nasty US tech session, while memory is trying to recover. SK Hynix shelving its Solidigm IPO plans gives that bounce a company-specific reason, rather than just hoping the selling has gone too far. BTC and ETH are only slightly lower over 24H, which is a better response than following tech all the way down...but yday's substantial ETF outflows make the demand picture less comfortable than the quieter PA suggests. For the past few weeks you've been paid to trade the range and it's felt horrific to do it each time as the swings are so violent...really tough to sell on a big pump coz it always feels like a breakout...really tough to buy on a big dip coz it always feels like stuff is going to plummet...on paper it should be easy to trade but of course it's ever so hard!

We've seen a massive move in rates with the 10Y hitting as low as 4.95%, almost 20bps off the highs of the week. That's meaningful bond relief, altho borrowing costs are still high and it didn't rescue tech - I just think stocks are impacting rates more than rates are impacting stocks...when we rally growth is less of a concern and inflation is more of a concern, and vice versa when we sell off. Oil rose sharply yday after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia renewed concerns about supply disruption. That leaves an awkward mix of cheaper Treasury yields and more expensive energy. December gold futures fell to around $4,030 in Asian trading today, so the bond rally hasn't translated into a bid for every supposed safe haven.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are slightly lower. SK Hynix finished up 4.4% in Korea after opening lower, while Samsung gained just 0.5%. Hynix has recovered some of Thursday's sharp reversal; Samsung's much smaller bounce makes it harder to call this a convincing recovery across the whole group. SK Hynix has suspended its review of a funding round and US IPO for Solidigm. A separate listing had raised concerns about a discount to the parent company's value, so removing that uncertainty gives shareholders something specific to respond to. Micron and Sandisk are also higher in premarket after closing down 6.3% and 8.5% respectively yday. That's better follow-through from Korea than simply hoping the US names catch up but may also point to a short-covering bid.

BTC, ETH and SOL are each down around 0.4% over 24H, while HYPE is down 1.2%. Much quieter than the selling in yday's brief, with the majors holding up reasonably well against the damage in tech. HYPE is still lagging, so this isn't quite a recovery lifting everything together. US spot BTC ETFs lost $635.6m yday, ending three consecutive days of inflows and more than reversing Wednesday's $524.8m buying. ETH funds lost $110.6m after Wednesday's $14.9m inflow. BTC still has $439.1m of net buying this week through Thursday, while ETH has lost $225.1m. Earlier BTC demand hasn't all disappeared, but the flow picture has taken a fairly sharp turn since yday's brief. Quieter selling in spot and money leaving the funds can both be true. ZEC is down around 4.1% over 24H and VVV 3.9%, so VVV's relative strength in yday's brief hasn't held. Both are lagging the majors rather than offering much shelter. The privacy and AI-related names we've been discussing still have a tougher day than BTC and ETH; that doesn't settle the longer-term case, but the outperformance hasn't arrived today. Good luck today and touch grass this weekend.