Rekt Mkts: Does the market like the Anthropic S1?

Anthropic filed its S1 yesterday as it gears for plans to IPO in mid-November. I suppose the fact that they still intend to go ahead with it is bullish, and signals demand is there...altho it's still early days (WeWork often plays thru my head...one that kinda fucked me...a story for another time). It would seem that equities were bulled up by the move, with many AI stocks squeezing hard yesterday, while crypto saw a day of underperformance vs stocks.

The Fed begins its two-day meeting today, with the decision due tomorrow. Today's consumer confidence and new home sales reports give us another check on demand before that decision. Conference Board confidence is expected at 80.5 versus 81.9 previously; although I don't expect a huge amount of volatility from the number. The US 10Y is currently at 5% mostly unch'd, while the 30Y is around 5.30%, also unch'd. December WTI futures are around $101, down 0.8%, while gold futures are around $4,030, down 0.2%. Generally I'm not expecting too many red herrings this week and I think midterms + ANT are the things that are most important here.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher, with tech leading. Korean memory has joined in much more convincingly than yday: SK Hynix finished up 5.2% and Samsung 4.2%, after both closed lower on Monday. Micron finished Monday up 3% and Nvidia 2.4%, so the US chip recovery did make it beyond the premarket gains and are set to open tepidly higher today. A successful ANT IPO would obviously be very bullish for AI stocks across the board after a rough few sessions; there's still a lot of moving parts and multiple scenarios of what could happen, but so far it's been a decent start given the reaction to the S1. After yday's discussion about access to funding, that's a concrete deal for the market to respond to. It shows substantial capital is still available for this particular customer and structure, not that every neocloud can borrow on the same terms. Microsoft and Alphabet report tomorrow, followed by Amazon on Thursday. The useful question is how much of the spending is turning into cloud revenue and cash generation...a financed chip purchase is good news for the supplier, but the customer still needs to earn enough from the capacity.

BTC is down around 0.4% over 24H, ETH 0.3% and SOL 1.4%, while HYPE is up 1.2%. HYPE is still leading this group as it did in yday's brief, but SOL has gone from joining the bounce to lagging the other majors. BTC and ETH haven't fallen much; they just aren't doing much with the stronger backdrop in stocks either. VVV is up around 3% over 24H and ZEC 1.4%, so both are holding up better than BTC, with VVV now ahead of ZEC on the daily move. Their BTC ratios are up roughly 3.5% and 1.8% respectively over the same period and the strength has certainly been notable as BTC continues to barely hold on to 80K. As I said earlier, I think the reasons we have sold off are all actually bullish for ZEC, but when you have these initial moves lower, they often happen in a parallel fashion ie everything goes down. Once the dust settles, the market figures out what it actually wants to own, and the past week of ZEC/BTC going 13% higher shows its decision - I think we see this outperformance continue, and also think if BTC does manage to bounce it's going to be quite interesting for ZEC which should retest its recent highs. Good luck today.