Rekt Mkts: Binance reopens withdrawals...BTC barely moves

Every week continues to be a rollercoaster of emotions...just when you think something crazier couldn't happen Binance goes and gets hacked for fackin 6 bil...leads me to wonder what's gonna happen this week and I guess you got Tucker Carlson whipping around his rumours again. Quite a tough position to view risk from here on many levels, lots of things are sitting at key support levels once again, but these support levels have also been viciously strong and it's one of those where I just feel like given recent headlines, many things should be lower...but they are just not...and I have too much PTSD in former years as a bearish trader of doing the trade of "I can't believe this is not lower I'm shorting it" and then miraculously the market rebounds and low and behold, the thing I'm short is the thing that viciously outperforms. Consequently, I do actually think the best option is indeed to sit on hands and see how the next few days unfold...I'm still pretty "long the market" but it's all in spot between ZEC/CYPH which has felt like a trade that's also held up well on market dips...I still think it's paramount to allocate a significant chunk of the portfolio to privacy/quantum resistant plays in crypto, and cybersecurity in stocks.

Oil is giving back some of last week's gains as talks mediated by Qatar raise hopes of progress towards ending the US-Iran war. WTI futures are around $99.42, down 4.5%. Iran says the talks are progressing, but there isn't a deal yet, so this is relief on the prospect of fewer supply disruptions rather than confirmation that they're over...and hope that there's a rabbit out of the hat post midterms. The US 10Y is around 4.91%, following Friday's fall of around 6bps to 4.93%. Borrowing costs are still high despite that relief. Tomorrow's US midterms are the next big political event...honestly I see all sorts of different takes on the internet as to what would be bullish or bearish for markets but I still feel like I'm maintaining the fact that overcoming the cloud of uncertainty will result in a positive tailwind into the end of the year. Polymarket is pricing in a 73% chance of the Dems controlling the Senate, and a 95% chance of the House...so a Dem sweep is the most likely outcome here which is potentially bearish for crypto, and I suppose people are a bit worried that Trump uses that as an excuse to do something the market perceives to be irrational...so yeah...we'll just have to wait and see.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher, with tech leading the rebound. Korean memory has recovered some ground too: SK Hynix finished up 3.8% and Samsung 1.8%, after Friday's heavy selling. That's a better start, altho Hynix hasn't recovered all of Friday's decline. Kioxia is a very different story, finishing down 15.8% after Friday's results. Its outlook points to little sequential growth in revenue and operating profit despite a record quarter. Management says longer lead times for data centre products are pushing some shipments into the following quarter, while currency moves are also a headwind. Strong demand hasn't been enough to stop shareholders selling the outlook. Apple reports today, Monday, after the close. It's a different earnings test from the hyperscalers because it isn't spending on data centres at anything like their scale. After last week's punishment for cash burn, sales and margins give investors something else to focus on. An Apple beat could help sentiment, but it wouldn't tell us whether the companies spending heavily on AI are earning enough to justify it and I expect less market vol as a result.

BTC is down around 0.1% over 24H and ETH is up 0.7%, while SOL is down 1.4% and HYPE 2.3%. HYPE was the standout in Friday's brief; it's now lagging the majors on the daily move. ETH is doing a little more, but this still isn't much of a relief rally after withdrawals started reopening. Binance resumed withdrawals in phases on Sunday after the $6.3bn hack. It says around 95% of the stolen assets have been replenished and that it will absorb the losses rather than pass them on to users. The remaining assets are less liquid and take longer to source, according to the exchange. That's progress, but it isn't the same as every asset being available to withdraw again. Customers pulled $3.64bn as the exchange reopened, with Binance saying withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike. Ppl being able to get their money out matters more than another promise that they'll be made whole...whether they want to keep it there is a separate question but compared to previous things like FTX...this is a good outcome. Absorbing the losses may help explain why the price reaction hasn't been worse, but it doesn't undo the hit to confidence. US spot BTC ETFs lost $643.2m on Friday, 30 October, ending four consecutive sessions of inflows and taking the completed week to a $202.4m net outflow. ETH funds lost $155.7m on Friday and $431.4m across the week, with outflows in all five sessions. BTC's earlier inflows were more than wiped out on Friday. ZEC is up around 0.6% over 24H against a nearly flat BTC, while VVV is down 4.6%. ZEC is still holding up better than BTC on that comparison, but it's a modest daily gain rather than another surge in the privacy names. Good luck today.