Rekt Mkts: Strong jobs report tests the bloodbath rebound

Fucking mental day yday tbh with a 6% move lower in the Nasdaq...the biggest daily drop we've seen since COVID. We saw a continuation of the selloff in AI names and quite clearly this was a result of forced selling due to multiple hedge funds ultimately being liquidated. Crypto held up better but we're still sitting near the lows and haven't quite seen the same rebound. Generally speaking I think you wanna buy these liquidations and I did add a decent chunk of risk in the equities book but likely for a quick flip for now...it's paid to trade the ranges.

October payrolls rose by 165,000 against expectations of 65,000, with unemployment at 4.1%. September's payroll gain was revised up to 60,000 from 29,000. That's a stronger labour market than expected, rather than the slowdown that might have taken some pressure off the Fed. I think it's probably a good outcome for mkts tbh and futures seem OK with it. If we had a shit number then you'd be hearing not-so-merry ballads of stagflation again and I think stuff could have potentially really shat the bed in style. The US 10Y is around 4.87%, up roughly 3.5bps from yday's close near 4.84%, reversing the small decline before the report. WTI futures are around $91.22, up 0.8%, while gold futures are around $4,060, down 1.3%. Oil is recovering some ground while the possibility of an Iran deal remains unresolved.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are higher to start the day with +0.1% and +1.3% moves respectively, with tech leading the recovery even after the jobs report. Micron and Sandisk had some horrific torches yday closing 17% and 20% lower respectively, but both are bouncing in pre-mkt so far today to the tune of 8-10%. That's a different picture from Asia, where memory had another rough session: SK Hynix finished down 10.4%, Samsung 6.4% and Kioxia another 8.7%. Kioxia is now down like 50% in just the last 5 days which truly is a brutal move. The US session yday was brutal for all...Nvidia down 9.3% and Nebius down 14.9%. Meta fell 4% too, having held up better the previous day. IMO I do think we're in overreaction territory here - certainly there are legit concerns over data centre buildouts but I believe the market is now behaving like that its halting is a concrete outcome, which it certainly isn't. If you believe in this stuff, it is undeniably an incredible entry point to add risk to long-term spot bags (I say spot because I expect continued volatility).

BTC is down around 4.8% over 24H, ETH 6.4%, SOL 5.3% and HYPE 3.9%. ETH has gone from leading the post-election rebound among these majors to falling harder than BTC. HYPE was already weak yday; now the selling is much broader. US spot BTC ETFs lost $430.2m yday and ETH funds lost $99.9m, reversing Wednesday's inflows for both. Monday through Thursday now comes to net withdrawals of $869.8m for BTC and $271.9m for ETH. Wednesday's relief in flows didn't last either. ZEC is up just 5% over 24H, with its BTC ratio up around 5.2% over the same period. That's meaningful outperformance against a falling BTC and I think this narrative and trend only continues. I wrote a longer post about ZEC earlier today in case you want to understand the thought process a bit more: @osf_rekt on X Good luck today.